The Toronto real estate market has entered the second half of 2026 with a different dynamic than we saw earlier in the year. Prices remain below 2025 levels, but the number of homes coming to market has also declined noticeably. That is beginning to change the balance between buyers and sellers in some parts of the GTA.
For anyone considering a move this fall, the bigger story is not simply whether prices are up or down. It is how supply, demand, financing costs, and property type are interacting to create very different conditions across the market.
Fewer Listings Are Changing the Buyer Experience
One of the clearest trends in recent months has been the decline in new listings. In August, GTA new listings were down 14.1% compared with August 2025, while sales declined by a more modest 2.1%. TRREB noted that less choice in some neighbourhoods could mean more competition among buyers and potentially renewed price pressure in the months ahead. Source: TRREB, August 2026 Market Statistics.
For buyers, this can create an interesting situation. There may be more negotiating room than during the peak years of the market, but fewer homes that actually fit a specific wish list. A buyer who finds the right property may need to move more decisively, particularly in neighbourhoods where desirable inventory is limited.
Prices Have Shifted, But Affordability Is Still Property-Specific
The GTA average selling price was $993,410 in August, down 2.7% year-over-year, while the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.5%. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted benchmark was essentially flat compared with July. Source: TRREB, August 2026 Market Statistics.
Those numbers tell us the market has become more affordable compared with recent years, but affordability does not look the same across every property type.
Condos, detached homes, townhouses, and different neighbourhoods can have very different price points and levels of demand. For buyers, that makes choosing the right property just as important as watching the overall market.
Condos and New Construction Are Facing Their Own Challenges
Another significant trend is the slowdown in new condominium construction. According to CMHC’s Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report, condominium apartment starts fell 40% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. In the City of Toronto, only 156 condominium units started construction during the first half of 2026, compared with an average of about 7,000 units annually over the previous decade.
CMHC also reports that condominium projects continue to face presale and financing challenges, while purpose-built rental construction has become a much larger source of new housing supply.
For condo buyers and investors, the individual building matters more than ever. Maintenance fees, location, building quality, upcoming supply, suite layout, and resale demand can all influence the value of a property.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, a market with fewer listings can create an opportunity, but it does not mean every property will automatically attract multiple offers.
Buyers remain price-sensitive, and they have more information available when comparing properties. Presentation, pricing, condition, and marketing still matter.
The strongest strategy may be less about trying to predict where the market will go and more about understanding what buyers are actually responding to in your specific neighbourhood and property category.
A More Strategic Fall Market
Financing conditions remain an important part of the conversation. On September 2, the Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25%, while noting continued uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, and the economic outlook.
For buyers, this means balancing today’s pricing with financing considerations and the possibility of changing inventory. For sellers, it means understanding how your home compares with the alternatives currently available to buyers.
Looking at the Market Through Your Own Lens
There is no single Toronto real estate market. The right approach depends on the property, neighbourhood, timing, and your goals.
If you’re considering buying or selling this fall and want to understand what the current market means for your specific situation, reach out anytime at 647-669-0900 or lorry@lorrygreenspan.ca. I’d be happy to help you look beyond the headlines and assess the opportunities in front of you.